We present a comparison of the forecasting performances of three Dynamic Factor Models on a large monthly data panel of macroeconomic and financial time series for the UE economy. The first model relies on static principal-component and was introduced by Stock and Watson. The second is based on...

In this paper we introduce bounded rationality into the standard Mussa and Rosen (1978) model. We obtain the necessary conditions for the monopolist to benefit from the boundedly rational behavior of the consumers and discuss the incidence of costs of boundedly rational behavior. We also obtain...

Optimization of simulated systems is the goal of many methods, but most methods assume known environments. We, however, develop a `robust' methodology that accounts for uncertain environments. Our methodology uses Taguchi's view of the uncertain world, but replaces his statistical techniques by...

This paper provides an empirical overview of the largely unexplored public blockchain ecosystem. Our overview highlights that only a few blockchains dominate the ecosystem although no single blockchain, not even Bitcoin, dominates uniformly. We explain our empirical findings with a simple...

We show that, in practice, the standard unit root tests, cointegration tests, and similar tests are unreliable. This conclusion is more generally applicable to other regression-based tests. In particular, these tests attempt to solve a problem by creating another problem

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China during the Spring Festival of 2020 is an unprecedented event. Its impact has spread throughout the country and around the world. In order to explore the impact of the epidemic on China's economy, this paper starts with the analysis of the daily railway passenger...

Poisson random effect panel data model is widely used in non-life insurance for posterior rate making. Recently, Lee et al. (2020) identify one shortcoming of the shared random effect assumption, which introduces both the marginal count distribution and the serial dependence between counts at...

French Abstract: Ce document de travail présente les méthodes d'estimation des paramètres d'un modèle de régression lorsque les variables sont observées sous un format intervalle. Il illustre cette procédure d'estimation sur les données de consommation d'électricité en France, afin...

In this paper, the relevance of national accounts statistics and their underlying conceptual framework is investigated for their four roles: description and object of analysis, tool for analysis and forecasting, tool for communication and decision-making and input for alternative accounts,...

Let k be a natural number and let G be a graph with at least k vertices. A.E. Brouwer conjectured that the sum of the k largest Laplacian eigenvalues of G is at most e(G) (k choose 2), where e(G) is the number of edges of G. We prove this conjecture for k = 2. We also show that if G is a tree,...