Naïve 1 forecasts are often used as a benchmark when assessing the accuracy of a set of forecasts. A ratio is obtained to show the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure accuracy. Formulae for the ratio are...

Seasonal variation and calendar anomalies are known phenomena in equity markets worldwide. Many researchers have studied day-of-the-month, day-of-the-week, month-of-the-year, tax loss hypothesis and SAD cycle in equity markets across countries. There has been many evidences of calendar anomalies...

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be...

The authors' study focuses on information needs of (groups of) individuals and organizations both in terms of what is and what should be -- such needs must be discovered and analyzed if the services rendered by information reporting are to be improved. The authors' research suggest that...

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and affects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investments flows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real...

Several formal methods have been proposed to check local identification in linearized DSGE models using rank criteria. Recently there has been huge progress in the estimation of non-linear DSGE models, yet formal identification criteria are missing. The contribution of the paper is threefold:...

Several studies have focused on the Realized Range Volatility, an estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices, taking into account the impact of microstructure noise and jumps. However, none has considered direct modeling and forecasting of the Realized Range conditional quantiles....

This paper models child employment and parental pocket money decisions as a non-cooperative game. Assuming that the child human capital is a household public good and that the relationship between child human capital and employment is concave, we compare the welfare obtained under different...

Unlike studies relying on data from industrial countries, recent studies using data from partially dollarized developing countries have found a favorable result to the uncovered interest parity hypothesis (UIP). In this paper, we test the robustness of these results using data from partially...

The aim of the paper is to reassess the issue of money demand stability by estimating a portfolio demand approach for broad money M3 in the euro area covering the sample 1999 to 2013. The question is relevant, since in view of the massive shocks observed since the start of the financial crisis...