The Value at Risk of a portfolio differs from the sum of the Values at Risk of the portfolio's components. In this paper, we analyze the problem of how a single economic risk figure for the Value at Risk of a hypothetical portfolio composed of different commercial banks might be obtained for a...

Although a forecasting model has very good statistical properties and the mean of the residuals equals zero, it can produce systematic errors during a short period. In the case of regular publications, forecasters want to prevent such a persistence of errors over several periods. For this...

We jointly estimate a New Keynesian Policy Model with a Gaussian affine no-arbitrage specification of the term structure of interest rates, and assess how important inflation, output and monetary policy shocks are as sources of fluctuations in interest rates and the term premium. To mitigate...

In this paper we present new pricing formulas for some Power style contracts of European type when the underlying process is driven by an important class of Lévy processes, which includes CGMY model, generalized hyperbolic Model and Meixner Model, when no symmetry properties are assumed,...

In this paper we find empirical evidence of a new smirk factor, obtained from the jump structure of the risk neutral distribution of the underlying Lévy process. As an application we show how to price a barrier style contract

We investigate the relationship between household debt and income inequality in the US, allowing for asymmetry, using data over the period 1913-2008. We find evidence of an asymmetric cointegration between household debt and inequality for different regimes. Our results indicate household debt...

In this paper, we propose an algorithmic approach based on resampling and bootstrap techniques to measuring the importance of a variable, or a set of variables, in econometric models. This algorithmic approach allows us to check the real weight of a variable in a model, avoiding the biases of...

The evaluation of multi-step-ahead density forecasts is complicated by the serial correlation of the corresponding probability integral transforms. In the literature, three testing approaches can be found which take this problem into account. However, these approaches can be computationally...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...