Credit risk models should reflect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...

Theoretical risk factors underlying time-variations of risk premium across asset classes are typically unobservable or hard to measure by construction. Important examples include risk factors in Long Run Risk [LRR] structural models (Bansal and Yaron 2004) as well as stochastic volatility or...

Credit risk models should reect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...

US monetary policy is investigated using a regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model that relies on inflation, output, and the short interest rate as factors. The model is complemented with a set of assumptions that allow the dynamics of the private sector to be separated from monetary...

This paper proposes and implements a parsimonious three-factor model of the term structure whose dynamics is driven uniquely by observable state variables. This approach allows comparing alternative views on the way state variables – macroeconomic variables, in particular – influence the...

This article discuss the use of Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting in dynamic term structure models through Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA). This method of analytical approximations allows for accurate inferences for latent factors, parameters and forecasts in dynamic...

We propose a method to produce density forecasts of the term structure of government bond yields that accounts for (i) the possible mispecification of an underlying Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) and (ii) the time varying volatility of interest rates. For this, we derive a Bayesian...

Credit risk models should reflect the observation that the relevant value of collateral is generally not the average value of the asset over all possible states of nature. In most cases, the relevant value of collateral for the lender is its secondary market value in bad states of nature, where...

In this paper, we focus on thorough yield curve modelling. We build on extended classical Nelson-Siegel model, which we further develop to accommodate unobserved regional common factors. We centre our discussion on Central European currencies' yield curves: CZK, HUF, PLN and SKK. We propose a...

In all investment decisions it is important to determine the degree of uncertainty associated with the valuation of a company. We propose an original and robust methodology to company valuation which replaces the traditional point estimate of the conventional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) with a...