Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To answer this question, we propose a small open economy model that incorporates realistic features of labour markets. The model predicts that a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. We test this prediction for...

For a decade from 2000 Indonesia underwent a natural resource export boom. Aggregate income rose, but real labor earnings stagnated. Employment rose mainly in low-skill sectors with predominantly informal employment arrangements. In this paper we reveal causal connections from the aggregate...

This paper looks at whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors. We first derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a small general-equilibrium model à la Obstfeld-Rogoff, supplemented by a resource...

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditure. Using a rich dataset of expenditure and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for the period 2001–2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public...

Innovation-spurred growth in oil and gas production from shale formations led the U.S. to become the global leader in producing oil and natural gas. Because most shale is on private lands, drilling companies must access the resource through private lease contracts that provide a share of the...

We examine the impact of natural resources on economic growth in Russia’s regions since the introduction of the mineral tax in 2002. Using novel measures of natural resource rents produced in, but not necessarily appropriated by the regions (mineral tax collections), we demonstrate that...

This paper looks at whether immigration can mitigate the Dutch disease effects associated with booms in natural resource sectors. We first derive predicted changes in the size of the non-tradable sector from a small general-equilibrium model à la Obstfeld-Rogoff, supplemented by a resource...

Using data for El Salvador and Bayesian techniques, we develop and estimate a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of remittances in emerging market economies. We find that, whether altruistically motivated or otherwise, an increase in remittance flows...

This paper examines how macroeconomic policies can be managed to accommodate a large inflow of foreign aid to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic and still maintain macroeconomic stability. Because of the daunting scale of this epidemic, funds need to be disbursed urgently in order to contain its...

The impact of aid inflows on relative prices and output is ambiguous. Aid inflows that increase domestic expenditure are likely to cause real exchange rate appreciation, ceteris paribus. However, if this expenditure raises the capital stock in the traded goods sector, then output in this sector...