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The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

Cole, Stephen J. - 2020

bank credibility. Forward guidance and the credibility of the central bank are uniquely modeled by utilizing a game …-theoretic evolutionary framework. We estimate credibility for the U.S. Federal Reserve with Bayesian methods exploiting survey data on … estimate of Federal Reserve credibility in terms of forward guidance announcements is relatively high, which indicates a degree …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846480

Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4

Svensson, Lars E O - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 1994

The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden between 1992 and 1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005123801

Inflation perception and the formation of inflation expectations

Schmidt, Torsten; Müller, Henrik; Rieger, Jonas; … - 2023

In this paper, we present a new indicator to measure the media coverage of inflation. Our Inflation Perception Indicator (IPI) for Germany is based on a corpus of three million articles published by broadsheet newspapers between January 2001 and November 2022. It is designed to detect thematic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014317116

Is Disagreement a Good Proxy for Inflation Uncertainty? Evidence from Turkey

Hulagu, Timur; Sahinoz, Saygin - In: Central Bank Review 12 (2012) 1, pp. 53-62

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941556

Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2010

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210

The case for higher frequency inflation expectations

Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037

The Case for Higher Frequency Inflation Expectations

Guzman, Giselle - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172972

Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap

Fuest, Angela; Schmidt, Torsten - 2017

Uncertainty about the future path of inflation affects consumption, saving and investment decisions as well as wage negotiations and price setting of firms. These decisions are based on inflation expectations which are a key determinant of inflation in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011592693

Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the euro area

Aßhoff, Sina; Belke, Ansgar; Osowski, Thomas - 2020

With the ECB's policy rate having reached the zero lower bound, traditional monetary policy tools became ineffective and the ECB was forced to adopt a set of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) measures. This paper examines the effects of the ECB’s UMP on inflation expectations in the Euro...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149519

Monetary policy and inflation dynamics in ASEAN economies

Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Garcia, Juan Angel - 2018

This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips Curves allowing for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011898926