We analyze the economic and political determinants of country credit risk in both developed and emerging economies by using sovereign yield spreads as risk indicators. We document a high degree of model uncertainty and apply Bayesian Model Averaging to deal with this issue. GDP growth and...

This paper addresses the following questions. Is there evidence of financial contagion in the Eurozone? To what extent a country's vulnerability to contagion depends on "fundamentals" as opposed the government's "credibility"? We look at the empirical evidence on European sovereigns CDS spreads...

The paper develops a structural credit risk model to study sovereign credit risk and the dynamics of sovereign credit spreads. The model features endogenous default and recovery rates that both depend on the interaction between domestic output fluctuations and global macroeconomic conditions. We...

Empirically we test the Merton-type model (1974) of credit risk in an emerging market such as the Korean corporate bond market. For that purpose, we assume two alternative firm value processes: diffusion process for the Merton (1974) model and jump-diffusion process for our extended model in a...

This paper analyzes determinants of country default risk in emerging markets, reflected by sovereign yield spreads. The results reported so far in the literature are heterogeneous with respect to significant explanatory variables. This could indicate a high degree of uncertainty about the...

The relationships among the Mexico EMBI+ and local and foreign risk factors are examined in this paper. The long run relationships and the dynamics are analyzed taking in account the effects of economic slowdowns into the period of the study. Also the volatilities of EMBI+, domestic interest...

A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate the debt dilution problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in sovereign debt contracts. In the event...

This study recalibrates corporate bond idiosyncratic risks in an international context. Applying a statistically powerful risk decomposition scheme, we show in this study that diversification is improved by the addition of a global risk benchmark. We build a long-run stationary yield spread...

The currency premium is one of the three components of the differential between local and foreign interest rates. Emerging economies such as South Africa typically face positive interest rate differentials, i.e., a higher cost of capital than developed economies. In this paper we aim at...

This paper studies the risk spillover among US Industrial Sectors and focuses on the connection between credit and liquidity risks. The proposed methodology is based on quantile regressions and considers the movements of CDS Industrial Sector Indices depending on common risk factors such as...