Throughout the history man has considered gold as a precious metal and its forcast has always been important. Traditional methods of forcast, e.g.Regresion, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, and methods of this kind have been applied. Only recently Artificial Intelligence, Neural...

We assessed three important criteria of forecastability—simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty about causes, effects, and data. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we...

Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...

Dans ce papier, nous presentons un certain nombre de techniques qui peuvent etre derivees de l'algorithme de Kohonen, telles que la representation des contenus des classes, la visualisation des distances entre les classes, une rapide et robuste classification a deux niveaux emboites bases sur...

In this paper we test empirically with the Nordhaus and Yang (1996) RICE model the core property of the transfer scheme advocated by Germain, Toint and Tulkens (1997). This scheme is designed to sustain full cooperation in a voluntary international environmental agreement by making all countries...

Cet article examine l'evolution a court terme des cours du cacao sur le marche de New York. Nous essayons d'etablir des previsions hors echantillon en utilisant une modelisation non lineaire de type reseaux de neurones. Nous examinons aussi l'impact des volumes de transactions, de la volatilite...

Apres avoir empiriquement mis en evidence l'instabilite des procedures CART de classification par arbre, nous presentons des methodes d'agregation de classificateurs obtenues a l'aide d'un reechantillonage de type bootstrap. Enfin, nous mettons en oeuvre ces procedures sur un probleme de...

This paper aims to extend recent work on the term structure of interest rates by establishing, in the context of the medium term UK interbank market, forecasting models which make use of market spreads as error correction terms. These models are then used withi n a trading scenario to test the...

Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life...

While considerable evidence has been produced concerning the efficacy of trading rules in futures markets, the results have generally not allowed for the reinvestment of profits as might be observed for real traders. Similarly, the determination of the appropriate capital allocation required per...