In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the "puzzle" of why the Lucas critique, believed to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real-business-cycle model to verify that the Lucas critique is quantitatively important in theory, and...

This paper develops a novel approach to the analysis of vulnerability in the context of food security. The proposed methodology incorporates recent developments in the analysis of risk management. It can be applied to estimate the probability that a household or a community might fall below a...

We examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various...

The study is connected with preparing of the country report for Bulgaria in the Work Package (WP) IX titled “Development of Scenarios for Health Expenditure in the Accession Economies” within the project “Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure” (AHEAD) under the...

The main objective of the study is to explore the interrelations between the most important demographic and macroeconomic indicators related to the health care expenditure in Bulgaria in a long-term perspective up to 2050 by using a model of the International Labor Organization (ILO). The study...

Problems of the economic growth in Bulgaria, related to its acceleration, approximation to developed countries' level and raising in the living standard, are examined. Possibilities for solving these issues on the base of an investment policy are analysed. The policy should stimulate local and...

The standardised residuals from GARCH models fitted to three stock indices of the Athens Stock Exchange are examined for evidence of chaotic behaviour. In each case the correlation dimension is calculated for a range of embedding dimensions. The results do not support the hypothesis of chaotic...

The paper develops volatility forecasting model for exchange rate RUR/USD. To forecast volatility we decompose it to components, characterizing fractal structure of financial time series. Using regression analysis we confirm quasi-cyclical time structure for one of the fractal parameter. We...

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights. Building on the work of Ranjan and Gneiting (2010) and...