We propose a novel regime-switching approach for electricity prices in which simulated and forecasted prices are consistent with currently observed forward prices. Additionally, the model is able to reproduce spikes and negative prices. We distinguish between a base regime as well as upper and...

Using a binomial probability distribution model this paper creates an endurance index of oil service investor sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index. Results of this study reveal the substantial...

Accurate and robust short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in electric power operations. This paper proposes a variant of genetic programming, improved by incorporating semantic awareness in algorithm, to address a short term load forecasting problem. The objective is to...

Network expansions in power markets usually lead to investment decisions subject to substantial irreversibility and uncertainty. Hence, investors need valuing the flexibility to change decisions as uncertainty unfolds progressively. Real option analysis is an advanced valuation technique that...

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which...

We investigate whether changes in the US dollar exchange rates of 18 currencies help explain the movements in the price of crude oil by using a wavelet-based nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (W-NARDL). This model allows one to capture the short- and long-run nonlinearities while...

In this study, we forecast economic policy uncertainty (EPU) using input on 23 commodity price changes. We reveal the significant predictability of EPU using three forecast combinations. This indicates that commodity price changes can be taken as a leading indicator of EPU.

The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...

This paper develops an indirect inference (Gourieroux et al., 1993; Smith, 1993) estimation method for a large class of dynamic equilibria. Our approach consists of constructing econometrically tractable auxiliary equilibria, obtained by simplifying the economic primitives of the structural...

This study undertakes the challenging task of comparing the weak form efficiency of conventional and Islamic equity markets. Using 12 different Dow Jones indexes that cover 16 years of daily data, we compare the time-varying non-linear predictability patterns of conventional market indexes and...