This paper characterizes endogenous monetary policy when policymakers are uncertain about the extent to which movements in output and inflation are due to changes in potential output or to cyclical demand and cost shocks. We refer to this informational limitation as the �information...

In striking contrast with the majority of other European economies, the UK pension system does not pose problems of financial sustainability to public finances. Public expenditure for pensions is foreseen to remain relatively stable for the next 50 years, around 5 percent of GDP, thanks to the...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

This paper considers the problem of testing for the presence of stochastic trends in multivariate time series with structural breaks. The breakpoints are assumed to be known. The testing framework is the multivariate Locally Best Invariant test and the common trend test of Nyblom and Harvey...

The dramatic increase in securitisation activity has modified the functioning of credit markets by reducing the fundamental role of liquidity transformation performed by financial intermediaries. We claim that the changing role of banks from �originate and hold� to �originate,...

The paper reviews the theory of the measurement of poverty. The axiomatic theory is described and the axiomatic properties of poverty indexes are related to assumptions on the functional form of the poverty index function. The notion of poverty ordering is then introduced and followed by a...

This paper analyses the local determinants of producer service growth in Italy, focusing on agglomeration economies, and taking into account the particular features of this sector with respect to manufacturing. Using an OECD classification, we estimate a dynamic specification allowing for...

This paper considers forecasting by econometric and time series models using preliminary (or provisional) data. The standard practice is to ignore the distinction between provisional and final data. We call the forecasts that ignore such a distinction naive forecasts, which are generated as...

This paper examines the velocity and asymmetry in the response of bank interest rates to monetary policy shocks. Using an Asymmetric Vector Error Correction Model (AVECM), it analyses the pass-through of changes in the money market rates to retail bank interest rates in Italy in the period...