Information on seasonal frequencies can provide valuable insights for understanding economic fluctuations. This is particularly true for Italy, where the variability of production in manufacturing is extremely high and almost entirely due to seasonal factors. This paper identifies the...

In this article, we analyse how much of the reduction in emerging markets spreads can be ascribed to specific factors - linked to the improvement in the 'fundamentals' of a given country - rather than to common factors - linked to global liquidity conditions and agents� degree of risk...

We present tools for real-time detection of turning points in the industrial production growth-cycle of the euro area and its four largest economies. In particular, we apply a multivariate hidden Markov model to national survey results � i.e. to the earliest information about current...

The recent literature on the productivity gains due to the adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) has stressed the importance of the complementarities between ICT and organizational change. The ICT enable to process and diffuse a large amount of information. The reduction...

This paper uses Garch models to estimate the objective and risk-neutral density functions of financial asset prices and, by comparing their shapes, recover detailed information on economic agents' attitudes toward risk. It differs from recent papers investigating analogous issues because it uses...

The paper examines the steps taken in the EU countries during the 1990s to adjust the public finances, describing their main characteristics on the basis of the measures’ impact on expenditure and revenue. It also attempts to estimate the possible “non-Keynesian” effects of the budgetary...

This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 150 time series, including real and monetary variables, relevant to the regional economy. Following the methodology adopted by Altissimo, Marchetti and Oneto (2000), we propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the...

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the euro area by means of Bayesian techniques. The model accounts for distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on...

This paper investigates the effects of subsidies on the investment decisions of a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. We use survey information on firms� subjective evaluations of the investment they would have undertaken without financing, finding that subsidies have limited...

The paper examines the development of Italy�s public finances after the consolidation period 1992-97, which secured participation in the European Monetary Union from the outset. The �structural� developments in the main budgetary components are assessed, excluding the effects of...