Oil traders find it challenging to process all information and choose which sources to follow.Inventories represent a perfect source, as they provide important information regarding realagents' intertemporal decisions and can easily be observed in real time. However, inventoriesdo not contain...

This paper provides robustness checks and analytical derivations to supplement the material presented in the paper Skewness in Expected Macro Fundamentals and the Predictability of Equity Returns: Evidence and Theory.The paper to which these Appendices apply is available at the following URL:...

A State Price Density (SPD) is the density function of a risk neutral equivalent martingale measure for option pricing, and is indispensible for exotic option pricing and portfolio risk management. Many approaches have been proposed in the last two decades to calibrate a SPD using financial...

In order to examine non-linear predictability of the US and Japanese dividend-yield ratio, smooth transition regression model analysis is applied to an extended time period of data. The theoretical basis for investigating non-linear behaviour in stock returns can be based on the interaction...

We discuss the economic model and the econometric properties of the Convolution Autoregressive Process of order 1 (C-AR(1)), with focus on the simplest gaussian case. This is a first order autoregressive process in which the error terms are dependent on the lagged value of the process. We show...

We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market...

The purpose of the paper is to establish national carbon emissions prices for the People's Republic of China, which is one of the world's largest producers of carbon emissions. Several measures have been undertaken to address climate change in China, including the establishment of a carbon...

I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach and Autometrics can overcome the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns regressed on macroeconomic announcements. The typical specification...

The purpose of the paper is to provide a clear mechanism for determining carbon emissions pricing in China as a guide to how carbon emissions might be mitigated to reduce fossil fuel pollution. The Chinese Government has promoted the development of clean energy, including hydroelectric power,...

I provide a selective review of recent developments in financial econometrics related to measuring, modeling, forecasting and pricing “good” and “bad” volatilities based on realized variation type measures constructed from high-frequency intraday data. An especially appealing feature of...