This paper studies the time series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the US dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict...

The investment decision is part of a companies’ investment strategy. Defined as a logical set of technical and economic information, the investment strategy determines the main objectives of the firm regarding its investments, based on studies, analysis and simulations. It also establishes the...

We seek the roots of one-minute changes in VIX, an index of S&P 500 option prices, to understand risk neutral volatility and its risk premium component. Beyond leverage and risk premium effects, macroeconomic influences and some proxies for noise trading in the S&P 500 ETF market are...

We derive the implications from the absence of arbitrage in dynamic securities markets with bid-ask spreads. The absence of arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of at least an equivalent probability measure that transforms some process between the bid and the ask price processes of traded...

The authors examine the advantages of incorporating strategic exposure to equity volatility into the investment opportunity set of a long-term equity investor. They consider two standard volatility investments: implied volatility and volatility risk premium strategies. An analytical framework,...

Financial markets have become increasingly global in recent decades, yet the pricing of internationally traded assets continues to depend strongly upon local risk factors, leading to several observations that are difficult to explain with standard frameworks. Equity returns depend upon both...

Ratios that indicate the statistical significance of a fund’s alpha typically appraise its performance. A growing literature suggests that even in the absence of any ability to predict returns, holding options positions on the benchmark assets or trading frequently can significantly enhance...

Using the pandemic as a laboratory, we show that asset markets assign a time- varying price to firms' disaster risk exposure. In 2020 the cross-section of realized and expected stock returns reflected firms' different exposure to the pandemic, as measured by their vulnerability to social...

We study the representative consumer's risk attitude and efficient risk-sharing rules in a single-period, single-good economy in which consumers have homogeneous probabilistic beliefs but heterogeneous risk attitudes. We prove that if all consumers have convex absolute risk tolerance, so must...