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) model of endogenous asset price bubbles to monitor crash risk. The model is calibrated to 15 years market history for five …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419688
and crashes as market regimes with correlated negative jumps clustering over a finite period of time, our model provides a … series because they assume that crashes occur in a single large negative jump, which is counterfactual. The model estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800780
-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model of financial bubbles. This model is particularly relevant because one of its parameters … synthetic price time series and on three well-known historical financial bubbles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514498
and that started to burst in June 2015. The analysis is based on (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011412033
Bubbles and crashes have long been an important area of research that has not yet led to a comprehensive theoretical or … bubbles, crashes, and volatility are surveyed and a promising direction for future research, based on a theory of short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011264496
fundamental cause of the unfolding financial and economic crisis: the accumulation of several bubbles and their interplay …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258358
This chapter surveys the literature on bubbles, financial crises, and systemic risk. The first part of the chapter … provides a brief historical account of bubbles and financial crisis. The second part of the chapter gives a structured overview … of the literature on financial bubbles. The third part of the chapter discusses the literatures on financial crises and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014025360
ended up with a crash. Furthermore, we describe that cycles of bubbles and crashes are repeated. …The aim of this paper is to propose a new model of bubbles and crashes to elucidate a mechanism of bubbles and … subsequent crashes. We consider an asset market in which the risky assets into two classes, the risky asset, and the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257785
A certain spectrum, indexed by a\in[0,\infty], of upper bounds P_a(X;x) on the tail probability P(X\geq x), with P_0(X;x)=P(X\geq x) and P_\infty(X;x) being the best possible exponential upper bound on P(X\geq x), is shown to be stable and monotonic in a, x, and X, where x is a real number and X...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107455
We analyse how the future real economic activity is discounted to the current value of stocks in the US and European markets, and find that the extraordinary threat on future real GDP growth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic was obviously one of the main factors that affected the deep dive in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836097