, this study explores how the adverse weather events linked to ENSO affect the inflation expectations in Colombia and how to … the inflation expectations obtained from surveys and break-even inflation measures are affected by weather supply shocks … the mechanisms in which weather-related shocks affect marginal costs and inflation expectations. We find that ENSO shocks …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …

We study whether the trade-off between inflation and unemployment still exists in the euro area (EA). Using country …. (2022) deploying a non-tradable price index to measure inflation. We find that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and … overstate the steepness of the Phillips curve considerably. Our findings imply that the insensitivity of inflation with respect …

This paper investigates the effects of inflation news coverage on market-based inflation expectations and outcomes in … the inflation-protected securities market. We employ a large corpus of news headlines from top U.S. newspapers and market … data on the U.S. yield curve and inflation-protected securities. Our results indicate that news coverage, particularly …

—in the context of a historic surge in inflation. We measure economic narratives in open-ended survey responses and represent …, households' narratives strongly shape their inflation expectations, which we demonstrate with descriptive survey data and a …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

advantages over the standard scale which is centered at zero inflation: First, they mitigate the impact of the central tendency … the need to adjust the scale when actual inflation falls outside the range for which the response scale was designed. Our …

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual … inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about 'prices in general' to measure expected and perceived inflation …. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable …

In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to pre-specifted ranges of inflation. We show in … implications for survey design and how central banks can adjust the response scales during times of high inflation. …