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Inflation Analysis: An Overview
Quinn, Terry; Kenny, Geoff; Meyler, Aidan - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1999
judgement and a range of formal approaches. The latter include structural models which are strongly influenced by basic … methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), vector autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models …. The emphasis on particular methodologies has evolved over time but in all cases judgement has played a central role. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005786958
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Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts: Does it pay off?
Ba´nbura, Marta; Brenna, Federica; Paredes, Joan; … - 2021
judgement incorporated in survey forecasts can considerably increase model forecasts accuracy, however, the way and the extent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012515464
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Combining Bayesian VARs with survey density forecasts : does it pay off?
Bańbura, Marta; Brenna, Federica; Paredes, Joan; … - 2021
judgement incorporated in survey forecasts can considerably increase model forecasts accuracy, however, the way and the extent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012507233
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Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: Cyclical and structural drivers
Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; … - 2021
From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB's strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661662
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Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019 : cyclical and structural drivers
Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; … - 2021
From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012650860
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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank
Falch, Nina Skrove; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2011
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304426
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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank
Skrove Falch, Nina; Nymoen, Ragnar - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 5 (2011) 2011-15, pp. 1-36
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010306877
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Unravelling the narratives behind macroeconomic forecasts
De Castro-Valderrama, Marcela; Forero-Alvarado, Santiago; … - 2022
What are the main narratives among the public regarding the future course of the Colombian economy, and how do they compare to those of the Central Bank of Colombia? Macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys mainly assess observable variables; therefore, they offer little understanding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013432979
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Evaluating a central bank's recent forecast failure
Nymoen, Ragnar - 2005
Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the economy. Thus, there is a premium on adaptation in the forecast process, in order to avoid sequences of forecast failure. This paper evaluates a sequence of inflation forecasts in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010284441
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The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank
Skrove Falch, Nina; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2011
This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both "naive" forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009309483