This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

The optimal currency for a country is an important topic. While it is difficult to identify the best option overall, for all stakeholders and including political considerations, it is easier to answer the more limited question of the title: Which currency is best for business in a small country?...

Using generalized Hurst exponent, we investigate the presence of long-range dependence in the stock markets and exchange rates (vis-a-vis US dollar) of all in ation targeting countries having oating currencies. Many studies with a data set from pre-2008 crisis and that developed markets are less...

While most macroeconomic indicators, analyzed on a longer period of time, may indicate the "health" of an economy, the exchange rate evolution reveals, generally, the increase or decrease, non seldom brutal, of the "temperature" of an economy. Thus, the analysis of the exchange rates evolution...

This study analyzes the dynamic relationship between exchange rate (against US dollar), interest rate and the stock market (both in local currency) of Turkey from January 2003 to September 2013. In particular, the paper tries to answer if the correlations between these important variables change...

This paper applies cDCC model to compare the dynamic correlations between oil prices and exchange rates of G20 members. The significant shifts in the correlations are then endogenously detected. For each pair of oil price-exchange rate, empirical evidence confirms of a strengthening negative...

This paper analyzes the origins of currency crises for 20 OECD countries and South Africa from 1970 through 1998. The main contributions are in three areas. First, it tests for contagious crises and attempts to recognize contagion channels by employing a duration analysis. Second, to minimize...