This paper studies the importance of accounting for term structure maturity clusters while estimating latent factors, for the purpose of forecasting yield curves. The maturity clusters are identified using a hierarchical clustering algorithm. We then propose a new block dynamic Nelson-Siegel...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

We develop a technique of parameter averaging and Markovian projection on a quadratic volatility model based on a term-by-term matching of the asymptotic expansions of option prices in volatilities. In doing so, we revisit the procedure of asymptotic expansion and show that the use of the...

Markovian Projection is an optimal approximation of a complex underlying process with a simpler one, keeping essential properties of the initial process. The Heston process, as the Markovian Projection target, is an example.In this article, we generalize the results of Markovian Projection onto...

This paper utilizes Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models to analyze the interdependence among exchange rates of twelve Asian-Pacific nations, Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The daily data span from...

We develop a systematic approach to the reduction of dimensionality of smile-enabled models by projecting them onto a displaced version of the two-dimensional Heston process. The projection is the key for deriving efficient, analytical approximations to European option prices in such models....

A real options theory - in its classic formulation - suggests that firms invest less during times of high uncertainty, that is, uncertainty depresses investment. However, several theoretical extensions predict that the relationship between investment and uncertainty may be non-linear, or even...

We develop a systematic approach to Markovian projection onto an effective displaced diffusion, and work out a set of computationally efficient formulas valid for a large class of non-Markovian underlying processes. The generic derivation is followed by applications, including the calculation of...

This paper addresses the following questions: Are the major European stock markets more integrated after the introduction of the Euro? How much of the change in the stock indices in different European countries can be attributed to innovations in other markets? How fast are events occurring in...