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, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
We suggest a theoretical basis for the comparative evaluation of forecasts. Instead of the general assumption that the data is generated from a stochastic model, we classify three stages of prediction experiments: pure non-stochastic prediction of given data, stochastic prediction of given data,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005704195
This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and …, however, is affected by German reunification and relative factor prices no longer play a significant role. The forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005764576
This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy, showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: “macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005057524
procedure is illustrated by forecasting the German gross domestic product. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005115648
This study introduces a monthly coincident indicator for consumption in Germany based on Google Trends data on web …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488565
for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by … analysts thanks to statistical tools such as “Google Insights for Search”, which allow trends in different areas of interest to … inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010684834
The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession … provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models … some countries and/or variables appear to be more adapted to non-linear forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550857
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894733
Two new predictive screening tools that are based on analyzing records of over one-million people who experienced homelessness have been placed in the public domain by the Economic Roundtable. The two groups targeted by these tools are low-wage workers who have just lost their jobs and youth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012888788