This paper, prepared for the Invited Symposium "Financial Econometrics" at the 7th WCES, Tokyo, August 1995, surveys the subject of Econometrics of option pricing, and more precisely try to offer versatile tools to model the source of the prediction errors in option pricing.

We propose in this paper a Bayesian approach with a noninformative prior distribution developed in Mengersen and Robert (1996) and Robert and Titterington (1996) in the setup of mixtures of distributions and hidden Markov models, respectively.

This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dpt, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of dpt from this long-run component explain transitory but persistent fluctuations in stock market returns. The...

From the time of Henry Ford it has been known that large reductions in cost result from radical reductions in process cycle time. In the case of a Model T, a reduction in cycle time from 14 days to 33hours (i.e. 90% reduction) allowed the same car to be sold at $345 vs. $850. It would be of...

The smoothed maximum score estimator of the coefficient vector of a binary response model is consistent and asymptotically normal under weak distributional assumptions. However, the differences between the true and nominal levels of tests based on smoothed maximum score estimates can be very...

In this paper we have demonstrated the implications of incorrectly normalising the parameters of a reduced rank regression model to achieve global identification, and presented a method for estimating this model without using the ordering restrictions imposed in previous Bayesian and frequentist...

Most hypotheses in binary response models are composite. The null hypothesis is usually that one or more slope coefficients are zero. Typically, the sequence of alternatives of interest is one in which the slope coefficients are increasing in absolute value. In this papar, we prove that the...

This paper considers the case of Bayesian learning about the relationship between the greenhouse-gas level and temperature rise. Learning takes time because of a stochastic shock to the realized global mean temperature. The paper illustrates the difficulty of quickly learning about the...

There are two goods in the economy: a numeraire and a conspicuous (or positional) good. A type maximizes his utility which is a function of the numeraire and the inference of his unobservable rank by other agents. A conspicuous good is an observed signal and Bayesian inference is given by a...