We propose in this paper a Bayesian approach with a noninformative prior distribution developed in Mengersen and Robert (1996) and Robert and Titterington (1996) in the setup of mixtures of distributions and hidden Markov models, respectively.

In econometrics, most null hypotheses are composite, dividing the parameters into parameters of interest and nuisance parameters. The domain of the nuisance parameters can influence the size-corrected critical value and hence the power of a test. We show that the domain of the nuisance...

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have an important role in solving high dimensionality stochastic problems characterized by computational complexity. Given their critical importance, there is need for network and security risk management research to relate the MCMC quantitative...

In aftermath of the Financial Crisis, some risk management practitioners advocate wider adoption of Bayesian inference to replace Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for minimizing risk failures (Borison & Hamm, 2010). They claim reliance of Bayesian inference on subjective judgment, the key limitation...

A central maxim in statistics is that correlation does not imply causation, and a lack of correlation does not imply a lack of causation. However, this does not mean that correlation contains no informational content whatsoever for causality. In this paper, I propose a tractable characterisation...

This paper explains how the Gibbs sampler can be used to perform Bayesian inference on GARCH models. Although the Gibbs sampler is usually based on the analytical knowledge of the full conditional posterior densities, such knowledge is not available in regression models with GARCH errors. We...

This paper explains how the Gibbs sampler can be used to perform Bayesian inference on GARCH models. Although the Gibbs sampler is usually based on the analytical knowledge of the full conditional posterior densities, such knowledge is not available in regression models with GARCH errors. We...

This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dpt, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of dpt from this long-run component explain transitory but persistent fluctuations in stock market returns. The...

We generalize the growth-of-firm literature by linking alternative metrics of size via a Copula approach. We look at the result of the fitted Copula and justify the metric we base our analysis upon. We employ the Amadeus dataset and investigate the growth dynamics of the European pharmaceutical...

In this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's empirical...