Spectral analysis has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. In this paper, it is used to determine, through international comparisons, the frequency of GDP series in the long run. A reminder of the spectral methodology (I) is followed by successive examinations of the series chosen,...

The aim of this paper is to add to current debates on the efficiency of economic stabilization policies through an analysis of the conception of business cycles developed by Minsky in his earliest work at the end of the 1950s.

Das Produktionspotential der Liechtensteiner Volkswirtschaft hat sich in den vergangenen 60 Jahren im internationalen Vergleich ausserordentlich dynamisch entwickelt. Die Beschäftigung zeigt sich dabei als wichtigster Wachstumstreiber. Die expansive Entwicklung blieb jedoch nicht ungebrochen....

We construct new indicators of the imbalance between demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. The results show that the text-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data...

Real-time estimates of the potential output are essential in the EU fiscal surveillance framework. They are used for the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance, one of the main indicators in the assessment of the fiscal performance of EU Member States. Our paper examines whether...

We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014...

There has been considerable debate in recent years about whether well-defined business cycles even exist. At one extreme are those who assert that so-called business cycles are caused by exogenous shocks. At the other extreme are those who believe that business cycles may be endogenous, i.e.,...

In this paper we simultaneously estimate the real exchange rates between the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro. A prime candidate for explaining the exchange rate movements is relative potential output. Since this variable is unobservable, cyclical and potential output are estimated in...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...