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Modeling the Macro-Economy of Bangladesh

Lord, Montague - 2002

The study develops a parsimonious representation of the macro economy of Bangladesh. It aims to serve a dual purpose …. First, it provides a framework for making rational and consistent predictions about Bangladesh's overall economic activity … sectors. The modeling procedure as sought to account for the structure of the Bangladesh economy, the availability of data …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015233649

Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate

Pincheira, Pablo; Jarsun, Nabil - 2020

This draft is a summary of the paper entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate. In that paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of oil prices and of three additional oil-related products: gasoline, propane and heating oil. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229382

A Macroeconomic Model for Romania's Flexible Exchange Rate System

Lord, Montague J. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1994

The transition process of the Romanian economy motivated the design of a model that provides for a parsimonious representation of the structure of the economy, exploits the increased availability of data for the system of national accounts, and recognizes time-variant parameters that can result...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011111567

A Macroeconomic Simulation Model for Uzbekistan: Technical Guide to Macroeconomic Applications

Lord, Montague J. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2005

The study provide an analysis of the macroeconomic issues surrounding the reforms needed to meet the country’s growth target, as well as to identify existing policy and structural constraints and macroeconomic policy reforms measures that would help to remove those constraints. The indicative...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011258386

Modeling the Open Macro-Economy of Vietnam

Lord, Montague J. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1998

The present macroeconomic model aims to provide a theory-consistent representation of the general structure of the Viet Nam economy and, as such, it offers real and financial sector forecasting and policy simulation capabilities targeted to the needs of the State Bank of Viet Nam. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011109153

The predictive relationship between exchange rate expectations and base metal prices

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2018

In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015261799

Forecasting Aluminum Prices with Commodity Currencies

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolás - 2019

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015265738

The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox: A summary

Pincheira, Pablo; Hardy, Nicolas - 2020

This is a summary of the paper entitled : “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015229363

Policy Robustness : Specification and Simulation of a Monthly Money Market Model

Von zur Mühlen, Peter; Tinsley, Peter; Fries, Gerhard - 2022

This paper explores the specification and use of uncertainty measures in constructions of policy forecasts of money market activity. The concept of a policy forecast implies efforts not only to explicitly condition forecasts on assumptions regarding short-run operating procedures but also to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403665

Updating the Romanian Economic Macromodel

Dobrescu, Emilian - 2014

The paper describes the version (2012) of the Romanian economic macromodel. The model has been constructed taking into account the important consequences induced by the integration of the country into the European Union and by the world crisis. Some supplementary requests of the government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013059943