This paper develops a growth model of a country under a Hobbesian environment with international conflicts where national defense is the only way to prevent external predation. The long run growth path is determined by the equilibrium of a dynamic game with three players, the external predator,...

This paper investigates income and population biases in the distribution of aid and decomposes recipients by geographic region. Previous analyses aggregate recipients and assume biases have an equal impact. Results demonstrate that while a bias towards middle-income and medium-sized countries...

National averages conceal powerful interactions underlying English economic development in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The simplest operational divisions are north, south and London. Initially industry and business culture predominated in the south but this culture was seduced by...

In this brief note describes the trajectory of the fractal models/multifractal F/M by Benoit Mandelbrot. The promise was discovered by the geometry of Mandelbrot covers a broad area of research fields, from meteorology and mathematical physics to the individual and collective behavior in...

We analyze the impact on a firm’s profits and optimal wage rates, and on the distribution of workers’ earnings, when workers compare their earnings with those of co-workers. We consider a low-productivity worker who receives lower wage earnings than a high-productivity worker. When the...

The paper explores puzzles in Indian growth performance such as the prolonged period of below potential growth in the late nineties. Uneven investment was a major explanation. Risk aversion and adverse expectations prevented investment from rising. Since sufficient domestic and foreign savings...

The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH) model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD) versus Turkish Lira (TRY). These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation...

The year 2010 showed how prone to crisis the Euro zone is. To a great extent this results from insufficient public policy coordination of EU member states’ public and fiscal policies. This paper discusses the main reform proposals related to fiscal, public and structural policy against the...

Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts produced by nonlinear econometric models. Some methods resort to Monte Carlo, while others resort to different simulation techniques. This work aims at comparing these methods by means of experiments...