Morales‐Arias, Leonardo; Moura, Guilherme V. - In: Journal of Economic Studies 40 (2013) 4, pp. 572-596
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose and test empirically an inflation model containing permanent and … observable inflation to change over time. Out‐of‐sample forecasting exercises are used to test the model validity. Design … augmented Kalman filter, which allows us to compute smoothed estimates of permanent and of transitory components of inflation …