The empirical joint distribution of return-pairs on stock indices displays high tail-dependence in the lower tail and low tail-dependence in the upper tail. The presence of tail-dependence is not compatible with the assumption of (conditional) joint normality. The presence of asymmetric-tail...

In order to provide reliable Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts, this paper attempts to investigate whether an inter-day or an intra-day model provides accurate predictions. We investigate the performance of inter-day and intra-day volatility models by estimating the...

Predicting the one-step-ahead volatility is of great importance in measuring and managing investment risk more accurately. Taking into consideration the main characteristics of the conditional volatility of asset returns, I estimate an asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity...

This paper examines the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. We apply standard conditional volatility models (GARCH) and the GARCH model with long memory process (FIGARCH) in calculation of VaR. The empirical results from R|S statistics show that there is...

In financial literature, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) modelling is focused on producing 1-step ahead conditional variance forecasts. The present paper provides a methodological contribution to the multi-step VaR and ES forecasting through a new adaptation of the Monte Carlo...

The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering...

Τhis paper focuses on the performance of three alternative Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to provide suitable estimates for measuring and forecasting market risk. The data sample consists of five international developed and emerging stock market indices over the time period from 2004 to 2008. The...

The dependence between asset returns varies. Its strength can become stronger or weaker. Also, its structure can change, for example, when asymmetries related to bull and bear markets become more or less pronounced. To analyze these di erent types of variations, we develop a model that...