Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker...

When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk - in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the...

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in...

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this paper is to systematically assess the quality of option based volatility, interval and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset...

We develop a continuous-time intertemporal CAPM model that allows for risky beta exposure, which we explicitly specify. In the model, the expected return on a stock depends on beta's co-movement with market variance and more generally with the stochastic discount factor and deviates from the...

Financial decision makers often consider the information in currency option valuations when making assessments about future exchange rates. The purpose of this article is to systematically assess the quality of option-based volatility and density forecasts. We use a unique dataset consisting of...

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key part of the internal model`s approach to market risk management as laid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However, existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realistic small sample settings. Our contribution...

Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. This chapter provides a selective survey of the most important theoretical developments and empirical insights to emerge from this burgeoning...