It is now an accepted fact that the majority of financial markets worldwide are neither normal nor constant, and South Africa is no exception. One idea that can be used to understand such markets and has been gaining popularity recently is that of regimes and regime-switching models. In this...

Equipped with financial market data labeled with DTW and Pattern Rule label showing the likelihood of corresponding sequences as specific financial pattern, a financial pattern prediction model can be developed by training the labeled data, to predict the probability of pattern formation in the...

Risk factors and systematic factor strategies are fast becoming an integral part of the global asset management landscape. In this report, we provide an introduction to, and critique of, the factor investing paradigm in a South African setting. We initially discuss the general factor...

Surveys show that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the most widely used measure of forecast accuracy in businesses and organizations. It is however, biased: When used to select among competing prediction methods it systematically selects those whose predictions are too low. This is...

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly disaggregated consumer prices using cointegrated ARDL approach of [Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration...

Understanding changes to the mass of the polar ice sheets is of crucial scientific and socioeconomic importance due to their effect on the wider Earth system and potential to contribute to future sea level rise. On monthly to multi-decadal timescales, there is much uncertainty around the extent...

The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform...

This paper quantifies how variation in real economic activity and inflation in the U.S. influenced the market prices of level, slope, and curvature risks in U.S. Treasury markets. We develop a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model in which bond investment decisions are influenced by...