We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We …nd that the …nite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the …rst-di¤erenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional...

This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is...

This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price...

This paper investigates whether changes in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by the interest rate respond to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to...

To assess how financial markets and commodities are inter-related, this paper introduces a ‘volatility surprise’ component into the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) framework. We develop an econometric model in which returns and volatility allow to influence pairs of...

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect...

In this paper we combine an analysis of all labour market stocks and flows to assess gender gaps during periods of economic recessions and booms in oth the US and the UK. Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender and the business cycle, we analyse three important...

This paper estimates a forward-looking Taylor-type interest rate reaction function for Swedish central bank’s inflation-targeting policy and a developed model with the exchange rate taken into account. Based on real-time quarterly macroeconomic time-series from Sweden in the first decade...

This paper develops a quantitative analysis of operative risk. We model the volatilities of major financial indices Chemicals Industry for the period 2000-2009. The model uses an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multicriterio technique, to identifying the weight of major financial indices:...

This study employs the momentum threshold error-correction model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity to investigate asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships between West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil and gold prices in the futures market. The paper examines...