The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are: forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target...

We calculate an quot;enlargedquot; Phillips curve for a theoretical EMU with 12+8 Member States. Both the empirical evidence and the econometric analysis show the worsening of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment, and hence the need to revise, at least temporarily, the stance of the...

We study the impacts of the 2009 monetary stimulus and its interaction with infrastructure spending on credit allocation. We develop a two-stage estimation approach and apply it to China's loanlevel data that covers all sectors in the economy. We find that except for the manufacturing sector,...

We develop a new empirical framework to identify and estimate the effects of monetary stimulus on the real economy. The framework is applied to the Chinese economy when monetary policy in normal times was switched to an extraordinarily expansionary regime to combat the impact of the 2008...

This paper establishes stylized facts on comovements and heterogeneity of individual euro-area countries' output and price developments in the past two decades. For this purpose, a non-stationary structural dynamic factor model is fit to a dataset of euro-area macroeconomic variables. The main...

This paper establishes stylized facts on comovements and heterogeneity of individual euro-area countries' output and price developments in the past two decades. For this purpose, a non-stationary structural dynamic factor model is fitted to a large dataset of euro-area macroeconomic variables....

In this paper, we investigate whether monetary policy in prewar Japan was effective. Notwithstanding disagreements on whether it was effective, previous works have not suffciently studied the effects. So we evaluate them using three types of methods. First, we use the Granger causality tests and...

The European Markets Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) allows to burden a clearing obligation on non-financial corporates, which formerly did not necessarily clear their business. We give ten recommendations on how to cope with this obligation. These are motivated by a case study for which we...

The Global Financial Crisis had a severe impact on the commodity markets on top of the well-known effects on the worldwide economy. Not only the demand for commodities decreased severely thereby hurting the creditworthiness of participants in the wholesale commodity markets, but also the...