We show that VAR calculation speedup of an order of magnitude can be obtained using Smart Monte Carlo with a sophisticated interpolator. As a byproduct, we give some encouraging numerical results for evaluating N-dimensional Gaussian integrals without doing any integrals at all

The purpose of this research is the realistic forecast of volatility in frame of a risk parity class of strategies. The custom rescaling of volatility – naïve risk parity - doesn't consider market inefficiencies which correspond to cyclical patterns like crisis and the following recovery. The...

In this paper, I construct an optimal portfolio by minimizing the expected tail loss (ETL) derived from the forward-looking natural distribution of the Recovery Theorem (RT). The RT is one of the first successful attempts at deriving an unparameterized natural distribution of future asset...

This paper contributes to the literature on cryptocurrencies, portfolio management and estimation risk by comparing the performance of naïve diversification, Markowitz diversification and the advanced Black-Litterman model with VBCs that controls for estimation errors in a portfolio of...

We provide an extreme value analysis of the returns of Bitcoin. A particular focus is on the tail risk characteristics and we will provide an in-depth univariate extreme value analysis. Those properties will be compared to the traditional exchange rates of the G10 currencies versus the US...

We present a framework focused on the interdependence of high-dimensional tail events. This framework allows us to analyze and quantify tail interdependence at different levels of extremity, decompose it into systemic and residual part and to measure the contribution of a constituent to the...

We present a framework focused on the interdependence of high-dimensional tail events. This framework allows us to analyse and quantify tail interdependence at different levels of extremity, decompose it into systemic and residual part and to measure the contribution of a constituent to the...

Value and momentum returns and combinations of them are explained by their loadings on global macroeconomic risk factors across both countries and asset classes. These loadings describe why value and momentum have positive return premia while at the same time being negatively correlated. The...

Empirical Finance is in crisis: Our most important "discovery" tool is historical simulation, and yet, most backtests published in leading Financial journals are flawed.The problem is well-known to professional organizations of Statisticians and Mathematicians, who have publicly criticized the...

In this article we present the motivation and methodology behind the Tail Risk Model for Equities. This model provides portfolio managers with reports on tail risk measures, such as VaR and Expected Shortfall in a non‐normal setting, and attributes risk to individual securities and factors. We...