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This paper aims at evaluating the impact of globalization, if any, on inflation and the inflation process. We estimate standard Phillips curve equations on a panel of OECD countries over the last 25 years. We first show that the impact of commodity import price inflation on CPI inflation depends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528501
Recent papers have argued that one implication of globalization is that domestic inflation rates may have now become more a function of ``global", rather than domestic, economic conditions, as postulated by closed-economy Phillips curves. This paper aims to assess the empirical importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004970915
This paper employs a structural model to estimate whether global output gap has become an important determinant of U.S. inflation dynamics. The results provide support for the relevance of global slack as a determinant of U.S. inflation after 1985. The role of domestic output gap, instead, seems...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004977962
The decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack observed in developed countries over the last 25 years has been often attributed to globalization. However, this intuition has so far not been formalized. I develop a general equilibrium setup that can rationalize the flattening of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196011
Recent cross-country studies on the globalization and output-inflation tradeoff correlation find openness has no significant effect on OECD countries. Those studies assume parameter constancy across countries. In this paper, we argue that this assumption does not hold for major industrialized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011092324
The recently observed disconnect between inflation and economic activity can be explained by the interplay between the zero lower bound (ZLB) and the costs of external financing. In normal times, credit spreads and the nominal interest rate balance out; factor costs dominate firms' marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432969
This paper investigates the predictions of a simple optimizing model of nominal price rigidity for the aggregate price level and the dynamics of inflation. I compare the model's predictions with those of a perfectly competitive, flexible price "benchmark" model (corresponding to the model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011576603
the aim of analysing counterfactually the globalisation effect on inflation. The main findings are (i) the effect is … globalisation impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well … as negative. Overall, globalisation is found to have contributed positively to lowering rather than stabilising inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009753029
- often referred to as globalisation - has been taking place. In this paper, we analyse the effects of globalisation on … inflation in OECD countries. We theoretically outline different channels through which globalisation may have influenced … globalisation has contributed to the disinflation process in OECD countries since the 1980s. Inflation rates became much less prone …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619033
We perform a robust estimation of the Phillips curve in the euro area using a battery of 630 theory-driven models. We extend the existing literature by adding model specifications, taking into account the uncertainty in the measurement of variables and testing for potential non-linearities and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315363