This paper considers issues related to estimation, inference and computation with multiple structural changes occurring at unknown dates in a system of equations. Changes can occur in the regression coefficients and/or the covariance matrix of the errors. We also allow arbitrary restrictions on...

Elliott and Müller (2006) considered the problem of testing for general types of parameter variations, including infrequent breaks. They developed a framework that yields optimal tests, in the sense that they nearly attain some local Gaussian power envelop. The main ingredient in their setup is...

The usual Wald test for the Granger non-causality in cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) processes is known to have the asymptotically non-standard distribution. There have been proposed a few alternative (inefficient) methods which give the asymptotically standard distribution. However,...

In this paper, we propose a new approach to test the hypothesis of long-run Granger non-causality in cointegrated systems. We circumvent the problem of singularity of the variance-covariance matrix associated with the usual Wald type test by proposing a generalized inverse procedure, and an...

In this paper we systematically compare forecasting accuracy of hypothesis testing procedures with that of a model combining algorithm. Testing procedures are commonly used in applications to select a model, based on which forecasts are made. However, besides the well-known difficulty in dealing...

This paper designs a visual goodness-of-fit test based on the probability integral transformation of the residuals of an estimated model. We illustrate the method with histograms and correlograms of transformed series for different distributions of disturbances in simulated models. An...

This paper presents a Bayesian-hypothesis-testing-based methodology for model validation and confidence extrapolation under uncertainty, using limited test data. An explicit expression of the Bayes factor is derived for the interval hypothesis testing. The interval method is compared with the...

This paper addresses the specification of the econometric models used in the paper “Level of Development, Rate of Economic Growth, and Income Inequality†by Jih Y. Chang and Rati Ram (2000). We find that when accounting for regional heterogeneity, the Kuznets hypothesis no longer...