This paper examines circumstances under which subjectivity enhances the effectiveness of inductive reasoning. We consider agents facing a data generating process who are characterized by inference rules that may be purely objective (or data-based) or may incorporate subjective considerations....

Introduction: Common approaches in cost-effectiveness analyses do not adjust for confounders. In nonrandomized studies this can result in biased results. Parametric models such as regression models are commonly applied to adjust for confounding, but there are several issues which need to be...

This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We establish sufficient conditions for identification of the structural shocks and the associated impulse response functions. In particular, we argue that, if the data follow an approximate factor...

Periods of economic and financial stress traditionally give rise to profound changes in economic theory and in the way policy decisions are taken. Motivated by the recent interest in renewing macroeconomics after the global financial crisis, we collected the views of senior central bank staff in...

This paper shows how to incorporate judgment in a decision problem under uncertainty, within a classical framework. The method relies on the specification of a judgmental decision with associated confidence level and application of hypothesis testing. The null hypothesis tests whether marginal...

Computational methods to gauge investor sentiment from commonly used online data sources that rely on machine learning classifiers and lexicons have shown considerable promise, but suffer from measurement and classification errors. In our work, we develop a simple, direct and unambiguous...

Selective attrition out of longitudinal datasets is a concern for empirical researchers. This paper discusses a simple way to identify both direction and magnitude of potential sample bias in household panels. The idea is to exploit multiple types of simultaneous entries into the panel. The...

What effect does rising income inequality have on mortality rates in developed countries? In particular, does the rise of the super-wealthy or the top 0.01% of the population effect overall health of the population? This paper focuses on the effect of rising income inequality on mortality rates...

Stochastic frontier analysis is a popular tool to assess firm performance. Almost universally it has been applied using maximum likelihood estimation. An alternative approach, pseudolikelihood estimation, decouples estimation of the error component structure and the production frontier, has been...

What effect does rising income inequality have on longevity in advanced developed economies? This paper focuses on the effect of income inequality on mortality rates for men and women in a subset of OECD countries over nearly six decades from 1950-2008. Using adult mortality rates at aged...