This study assesses whether the widely documented momentum profits can be ascribed to time-varying risk as described by a GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M model. Consistent with rational pricing in efficient markets, we reveal that momentum profits are a compensation for time-varying unsystematic risks, common...

While it is commonly believed that derivative instruments are a recent invention, we document the existence of forward contracts for the sale of wool in medieval England around 700 years ago. The contracts were generally entered into by English monasteries, who frequently sold their wool for up...

The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and widely studied around the world. However, it has always been calculated on the basis of the previous year’s earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated, due to taking too short-term a...

This paper employs a unique dataset from the UK based on ten years of surveys of company directors and analysts conducted for Management Today to examine the relationship between a firm’s reputation and the returns on its shares. We find that investors who purchase stocks with reputation...

This study assesses whether the widely documented momentum profits can be attributed to time-varying risk as described by a GJR-GARCH(1,1)-M model. We reveal that momentum profits are a compensation for time-varying unsystematic risks, which are common to the winner and loser stocks but affect...

This paper proposes and implements a new methodology for forecasting time series, based on bicorrelations and cross-bicorrelations. It is shown that the forecasting technique arises as a natural extension of, and as a complement to, existing univariate and multivariate non-linearity tests. The...

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the...

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically...

Many recent studies documented the presence of speculative bubbles, defined as systematic and increasing deviations of actual prices from fundamentals, in asset prices. However, thus far, the usefulness of such models has been examined in the literature only from a statistical perspective. In...