We document stylized facts about China's recent exchange rate policy for its currency, the Renminbi (RMB). Our empirical findings suggest that a "two-pillar policy" is in place, aiming to balance RMB index stability and exchange rate flexibility. We then develop a tractable no-arbitrage model of...

This paper develops an international asset-pricing model with defaultable firms and governments that demonstrates how sovereign credit risk in Europe affects US equity market prices. The risk of a sovereign debt crisis is a threat to economic growth that reduces the value of international...

This study examines short horizon currency futures returns. Expectations hypothesis or risk neutrality assumes an efficient market with no risk premium, and therefore no predictor for futures returns. Using the British, German, Swiss, Japanese, and Canadian currencies as well as pooled currency...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...

Over-the-counter (OTC) traders cannot pursue the two fundamental objectives of portfolio management, the identification of portfolio market risk and return and its diversification. The result of this major market shortcoming is a complex, systemically risky market disequilibrium. The tradable...

The carry trade is a zero net investment strategy that borrows in low yielding currencies and subsequently invests in high yielding currencies. It has been identified as highly profitable FX strategy delivering significantly excess returns with high Sharpe ratios. This paper shows that these...

I show that volatility risk of the dollar factor --- an equally weighted basket of developed U.S. dollar exchange rates --- carries a significant risk premium and that it is priced in the cross-section of currency volatility excess returns. The dollar factor volatility risk premium is negative...

I show that an important no-arbitrage consistent but costly collateral rental yield contributes to about two-thirds of the standard CIP violations. I measure this yield using two approaches applied to short- and long-term CIP horizons. First, I assume that the yield is observable and proxy it...

This paper examines the behaviour of foreign exchange reserves, when a government defends an exchange rate target zone using Minimal Marginal Intervention. Reserve depletion defending a single exchange rate barrier is first modelled as the maximum or minimum value of the path of an unregulated...

This paper provides a short introduction to the topic of target zone exchange rate option pricing. Models covered include: Black-Scholes equation with derivation, European Call on a stock option, Garman-Kohlhagen model for an option on a free-floating exchange rate, Dumas Jennergren and Naslund...