This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and...

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home...

"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

This paper investigates how changes in industries funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on panel regressions using data for U.S. and Canadian industries and industries dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, we show that increases in the cost...

From 1960 to 2009, the U.S. current account balance has tended to decline during expansions and improve in recessions. We argue that shocks to the trend growth rate of productivity can help explain the countercyclical U.S. current account. Our framework is a twocountry, twogood business cycle...

Forecasting aggregate retail sales may improve portfolio investors’ ability to predict movements in the stock prices of the retailing chains. Therefore, this paper uses 26 (23 single and 3 combination) forecasting models to forecast South Africa’s aggregate seasonal retail sales. We use data...

This paper examines the causal relationships between the real house price index and real GDP per capita in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger (temporal) non-causality test and a fixed-size rolling-window estimation approach. We use quarterly time-series data on the real house price index and...

We consider a DSGE model with flexible prices, monopolistic competitive banks and sticky interest rates, together with endogenous firms exit and entry decisions. We find that economies characterized by endogenous firms dynamics imply higher volatilities of both real and financial variables than...

El auge de los países asiáticos tras la Segunda Guerra Mundial se convirtió en un reto para la economía como disciplina y para las ciencias sociales en general. La trayectoria de Japón muestra que la tentativa de imitar el modelo de producción estadounidense se tropezó con las...

La presente investigación tiene por objetivo dilucidar la existencia, en el periodo de 1960 a 2011, de un ciclo político en la economía mexicana, que permita a los gobiernos en turno influir en variables económicas estratégicas durante los procesos electorales, incidir en la decisión de...