This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

This article examines whether the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a reliable decision-making tool of business concentration. The statistical properties of the index are considered in order to facilitate an improved statistical decision-making with the index. A misinformed application of the...

The present study investigates the investment variation of remittance determinants in rural area at the origin. Using micro-economic data from a survey conducted in 2013, multivariate analysis was carried out on 300 rural households. The empirical results show that the significance level and...

Investors are periodically challenged with this question: with funds ready to invest, but faced with a market that is generally perceived to be expensive, is it better to wait for a market correction before investing? Many investors are certain that a correction must be around the corner, and...

I model the effects of climate change on a real business cycle model economy subjected to climate moderated disasters and the possibility of a worldwide cataclysm that destroys the economy. I find that the rise of greenhouse gas production in the economy leads to more frequent and more...

This paper presents general approach to description of business cycles aggregate fluctuations of economic and financial variables. We model economics as ensemble of agents on economic space and agent's risk ratings play role of their coordinates. Aggregation of variables of agents with...

This paper describes evolution of economic and financial transactions between agents as ground for modelling fluctuations of economic and financial variables. We use risk ratings x of agents as their coordinates x on economic space. Transactions between agents define evolution of their economic...

Understanding the origins of wealth inequality is critical in the debate over what, if anything, to do about it. In this note, we propose a simple model which is still rich enough to reproduce observed patterns of wealth inequality. We call it the Concentrated Asset Betting (CAB) model. A key...