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English Abstract: This study examines the influence of global and country factors on inflation movements in Korea using … a multilevel factor model. Our results indicate that global factors were significant drivers of inflation in Korea … during the high inflation era of the 1970s, as well as in recent periods following the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014347539
separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job … prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254728
-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the … Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission … of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014257897
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110892
In this article we evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts during the period 1991-2009 using a novel real-time database. We compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110963
We evaluate inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) of the Central Bank of Chile … inflation forecasts. We evaluate these new forecasts in an out-of-sample exercise. The new forecasts display important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008616852
:05 suggests the presence of seasonality in the conditional variance of inflation. Thus, inferences for the models that do not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008568383
One of the two price indexation schemes in the staggered price DSGE models is the indexation to the average inflation …. In this essay we show that using average of inflation as index multiplier may lead to the deviation from the optimal … price for intermediate good producer. Although there is no problem with this indexation method as far as the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110100
The purpose of this article is to describe how inflation analysis and forecasting has been carried out in the Bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005786958
We test the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw (1994, 1995) on data from the inflation and deflation periods in Japan … during both inflation and deflation, is strongly supported. The data are less clear on, but does not reject, the hypothesis … that the parameter on the standard deviation changes sign between inflation and deflation periods. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305944