A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … measures in forecasting headline inflation. …

Forecasting consumer prices for package holidays, which represent a major driver of the inflation rate in Germany …

This study shows that replacing the traditional measure of asymmetry that is skewness in the inflation forecasting … model with an alternative asymmetry measure that captures the joint influence of both skewness and variance on inflation … measure of asymmetry in inflation forecast model as it has edge over simple measure of skewness in predicting inflation. These …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

This paper analyses the predictive power of market-based and survey-based inflation expectations for actual inflation …. We use the data on inflation swaps and the forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for the euro area and … inflation developments, as compared to statistical benchmark models. Therefore, for horizons of one and two years ahead, market …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … extreme trimmed-mean measure - the median CPI - improves the forecasts of both core and headline inflation (CPI and personal … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …