We show how to approximate de Finetti's measure of a partially exchangeable sequence by a mixture of products of Dirichlet measures, explicitly built once the approximation error has been fixed. These results are used to give a general method for the elicitation of prior distributions...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

Capital budgeting decisions are of paramount importance in production economics and, in particular, in manufacturing: investors direct their funds towards firms that create value and withdraw funds from companies which destroy value. Unfortunately, a disparate class of metrics and criteria is...

A plethora of tools are used for investment decisions and performance measurement, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR), Average Accounting Rate of Return (AARR). All these and other known metrics are...

We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...