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We show how to approximate de Finetti's measure of a partially exchangeable sequence by a mixture of products of Dirichlet measures, explicitly built once the approximation error has been fixed. These results are used to give a general method for the elicitation of prior distributions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005211804
A plethora of tools are used for investment decisions and performance measurement, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR), Average Accounting Rate of Return (AARR). All these and other known metrics are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015257544
The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285585
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004982588
The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008800756
In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of stochastic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters. In particular, we evaluate the impact that a change in the specification of the correlation of the age-specific...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835218
We develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008694970
Capital budgeting decisions are of paramount importance in production economics and, in particular, in manufacturing: investors direct their funds towards firms that create value and withdraw funds from companies which destroy value. Unfortunately, a disparate class of metrics and criteria is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979622
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420026
The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008772871