Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track … square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most …

investigated for their relationship with the tropical rainfall intensity in the individual cases. The relatively small root …

intensity of tropical cyclones generated in other sea areas is lower, there is little risk for China. Finally, according to the …

terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as −0 … intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in …

in the initial and boundary conditions. The study shows that generally KF scheme produced near-realistic track … intensity. The impact of cumulus parameterization schemes and its performance vary widely among the three cases studied. The …

. The points of cyclone genesis are modelled as a spatial Poisson point process, the intensity of which is estimated using a …, thereby generating a first 6-h segment of a track. The subsequent segments are then generated by drawing changes in theses … the track is determined after each segment as a function of wind speed and location. In the present paper, the model is …

scenarios based on the historical TC records in Australia. From the best-track TC data, we examine the changes in frequency …, intensity, and economic damage of the TCs that made landfall since 1970. From the detailed individual TC reports, damage … intensity, however, does not show a significant trend. Average damage per TC has declined significantly from 43 million AUD in …