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Tropical cyclone prediction over Bay of Bengal: a comparison of the performance of NCEP operational HWRF, NCAR ARW, and MM5 models

Rao, D. Bhaskar; Tallapragada, Vijay - In: Natural Hazards 63 (2012) 3, pp. 1393-1411

Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996079

Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation

Nicholls, Neville - In: Natural Hazards 23 (2001) 2, pp. 137-155

The last few years have seen enormous damage and lossof life from climate and weather phenomena. The mostdamaging events have included the severe 1997/98 ElNiño (with its near-global impacts), HurricaneMitch, and floods in China in mid-1998. What have welearnt regarding the causes, variability,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996525

Multi-Physics ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone movement over Bay of Bengal

Rao, Dodla; Srinivas, Desamsetti - In: Natural Hazards 70 (2014) 1, pp. 883-902

Ensemble prediction methodology based on variations in physical process parameterizations in tropical cyclone track … square error (RMSE). While the individual members had track errors ranging from 96–240 km at 24 h to 50–803 km at 120 h, most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996532

Comparison of high-resolution TRMM-based precipitation products during tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Prakash, Satya; Mahesh, C.; Gairola, R.; Pal, P. - In: Natural Hazards 61 (2012) 2, pp. 689-701

investigated for their relationship with the tropical rainfall intensity in the individual cases. The relatively small root …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996566

Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation

Rumpf, Jonas; Weindl, Helga; Höppe, Peter; Rauch, Ernst; … - In: Natural Hazards 48 (2009) 3, pp. 383-398

A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996610

The Tropical Cyclone Risk in Cairns

Callaghan, Jeff - In: Natural Hazards 30 (2003) 2, pp. 129-153

Because of its location close to a region of tropical cyclone formation, the city ofCairns is regularly affected by tropical cyclones. Most cyclones occur in the monthsJanuary–March, although some have affected Cairns in December and April. There is a strong year-to-year variation in tropical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996619

China’s tropical cyclone disaster risk source analysis based on the gray density clustering

Zhang, L.; Zhu, H.; Sun, X. - In: Natural Hazards 71 (2014) 2, pp. 1053-1065

intensity of tropical cyclones generated in other sea areas is lower, there is little risk for China. Finally, according to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996635

Implications of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Srinivas, Desamsetti; Rao, Dodla Bhaskar - In: Natural Hazards 73 (2014) 2, pp. 1043-1062

terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as −0 … intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996757

Sensitivity of different convective parameterization schemes on tropical cyclone prediction using a mesoscale model

Mohandas, Saji; Ashrit, Raghavendra - In: Natural Hazards 73 (2014) 2, pp. 213-235

in the initial and boundary conditions. The study shows that generally KF scheme produced near-realistic track … intensity. The impact of cumulus parameterization schemes and its performance vary widely among the three cases studied. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010996797

Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal

Vissa, Naresh; Satyanarayana, A.; Kumar, B. Prasad - In: Natural Hazards 68 (2013) 2, pp. 351-371

estimated from genesis to the maximum intensity of cyclone in terms of minimum central pressure along their track of all the …The aim of the present study is to understand the impact of oceanic heat potential in relation to the intensity of … this study, the relationship between ATCHP and ASSHC with the central pressure (CP) which is a function of TC intensity is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010846821