In this paper, we develop a gap model based on a reduced form of the New Keynesian Model. The model offers various scenario structure tools which analyze the dynamics of key macro economic variables under diverse shocks and depicts their properties and historical decompositions. This framework...

This paper was presented as the 2006 W.A. Mackintosh Lecture at Queen's University. I consider some of the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. First, I consider whether ignoring money means...

This paper investigates the impact of international shocks - interest rate, commodity price and industrial production shocks - on key macroeconomic variables in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries by using near-VAR models and monthly data from the early 1990s to 2009. In contrast to...

The bursting of the Japanese bubble economy in the early 1990s put the stage for a lasting low-, zero-, and negative-interest rate environment, which fundamentally changed the business environment for the Japanese commercial banks. On the income side, with interest margins becoming increasingly...

The neutral rate of interest is an important concept and communication tool for central banks. We develop a small open economy model with overlapping generations to study the determinants of the neutral real rate of interest in a small open economy. The model captures domestic factors such as...

The Taylor (1993) rule for determining interest rates is generalized to account for three additional variables: The money supply, money velocity, and the unemployment rate. Thus, five parameters, i.e. weights assigned to the deviation in the inflation rate, the deviation in real GDP (Gross...

Communication has become a vital part of modern monetary policy, and its importance is even higher during a crisis when a central bank has to calm the markets down. This paper studies the information content of different styles of communication from individual central bank policymakers in the...

The global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic were marked by expansionary policies of key central banks in an attempt to stop the recession. The degree of expansiveness of monetary policy was unprecedented. As a result of expansionary policies, global inflation has been present since...

We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals...

Monetary policy tools, including money supply and interest rate, are the most popular instruments to control inflation around the globe. It is assumed that a tight monetary policy, either in form of reduction in money supply or an increase in interest rate, will reduce inflation by reducing...