Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the traditional quot;expectations theory,quot; we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class of richer dynamic term structure models. Specifically, we are able to...

We study the quantitative properties of a dynamic general equilibrium model in which agents face both idiosyncratic and aggregate income risk, state-dependent borrowing constraints that bind in some but not all periods and markets are incomplete. Optimal individual consumption-savings plans and...

In this paper, we explore the features of affine term structure models that are empirically important for explaining the joint distribution of yields on short- and long-term interest rate swaps. We begin by showing that the family of N-factor affine models can be classified into N+1 non-nested...

This article develops and empirically implements an arbitrage-free, dynamic term structure model with priced factor and regime-shift risks. The risk factors are assumed to follow a discrete-time Gaussian process, and regime shifts are governed by a discrete-time Markov process with...

In any canonical Gaussian dynamic term structure model (GDTSM), the conditional forecasts of the pricing factors are invariant to the imposition of no-arbitrage restrictions. This invariance is maintained even in the presence of a variety of restrictions on the factor structure of bond yields....

How has the Bank of Japan (BOJ) helped shape Japan's economic growth during the past two decades? This book comprehensively explores the relations between financial market liberalization and BOJ policies and examines the ways in which these policies promoted economic growth in the 1980s. The...

This paper develops a multi-factor econometric model of the term structure of interest-rate swap yields. The model accommodates the possibility of counterparty default and any differences in the liquidities of the Treasury and Swap markets. By parameterizing a model of swap rates directly, we...

This paper characterizes the nature of yield curve risk in the Japanese government bond (JGB) market, and explores the effectiveness of risk management based on a linear factor representation of yield curve risk. The implied optimal hedges against factor risk are related to duration-based...

This paper presents convenient reduced-form models of the valuation of contingent claims subject to default. A distinguishing feature of our approach is that losses at default are parameterized in terms of the fractional loss in market value. Under this assumption, and the assumption that...

We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive sample of CDS spreads for 26 developed and emerging-market countries. Sovereign credit spreads are surprisingly highly correlated, with just three principal components accounting for more than 50 percent of their variation....