Real-time estimates of potential output are used for the calculation of the cyclically-adjusted budget balance, one of the main indicators in the assessment of the fiscal performance of EU Member States. The estimation of potential output involves a decomposition of actual output into a cyclical...

In the past two decades the Irish real estate market experienced the most pronounced housing boom-bust cycle among all OECD countries. In this paper, we propose a model for residential real estate prices in Ireland distinguishing the effect of fundamental drivers and imbalances. We use a...

We propose a simple model that captures the link between bank and sovereign credit risk. It allows evaluating policy options to address this 'doom loop' in which the government may need to raise debt to recapitalise banks, and an increase in government debt raises sovereign risk and in turn...

We revisit a central task of the extant liquidity literature, which is to identify effective measures of liquidity, in the context of sovereign bonds and the new Basel III regulatory framework. We critically assess the influential practice of identifying the best liquidity measures based on...

The global financial crisis has led to a sharp deterioration of EU countries' public finances. Views are split regarding the most appropriate consolidation strategy to follow, in particular considering: the timing of fiscal consolidation in relation to the path of economic recovery reflecting...