The authors find that the composite leading index (CLI) is useful for forecasting gross national product (GNP), both in sample and in an out-of-sample real-time exercise. They propose a nonlinear specification in which cyclical shifts of the CLI precede those in GNP. However, the authors find...

This paper includes the derivations of the main expressions in the paper quot;The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed With the EMU?quot; by G. Perez Quiros and H. Rodriguez Mendizabal

Empirical support for the conventional notion that short-term investment is hot money and direct investment is not: short-term investment appears to respond more dramatically to disturbances in other capital flows and in other countries than does direct investment.Chuhan, Perez-Quiros, and...

We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and...

This paper studies the cyclical properties of real GDP, house prices, credit, and nominal liquid financial assets in 17 EU countries, by applying several methods to extract cycles. The estimates confirm earlier findings of large medium-term cycles in credit volumes and house prices. GDP appears...