What rule should a central bank interested in inflation stability follow? Because monetary policy tends to work with lags, it is tempting to use inflation forecasts to generate policy advice. This article, however, suggests that the use of forecasts to drive policy is potentially destabilizing....

When inflation-indexed Treasury securities were first introduced, economists hoped that they could be used to measure expected inflation easily. The only difference between securities that were indexed to inflation and those that were not was thought to be the extra compensation regular...

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of two traditional explanations of the monetary "black box" linking money and real activity: the liquidity effect and the loanable funds effect. These effects are modeled with a monetary production economy in which central bank injections of cash...

Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? This paper discusses the difficulties in disentangling these two effects.

Do exogenous money growth rules produce price level determinacy? This is a classic topic in monetary theory. This paper contributes to this literature by examining the effect of money demand timing. The paper demonstrates how conditions for determinacy vary depneding upon whether the theoretical...

This paper demonstrates that in a standard flexible-price monetary model there exists real indeterminacy whenever the nominal interest rate moves too closely with either current or forecasted inflation. However, an aggressive response to lagged inflation will ensure determinacy. These...