Dynamic forecasts of financial distress have received far less attention than static forecasts, particularly in Australia. This thesis, therefore, investigates dynamic probability forecasts for Australian firms. Novel features of the modelling are the use of time-varying variables in forecasts...

Since the early 1980s, the econometric analysis of duration variables has become widespread. This chapter provides an overview of duration analysis, with an emphasis on the specification and identification of duration models, and with special attention to models for multiple durations. Most of...

We evaluate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting at several horizons. For forecast accuracy gains from DMS in finite samples, mis-specification and non-stationarity of the DGP are necessary, but when a model is well-specified,...

We evaluate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting at several horizons. For forecast accuracy gains from DMS in finite samples, mis-specification and non-stationarity of the DGP are necessary, but when a model is well-specified,...

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve...

Financial performance of firms is very important to bankers, shareholders, potential investors, and creditors. The inability of firms to meet their liabilities will affect all its stakeholders and will result in negative consequences in the wider economy. The objective of the study is to explore...